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Statistics Of Doom Open Science VideoR - Data Screening Lecture
Pfanner Eistee Pfirsich - Follow these easy steps:Maintained by Dr. In Apokalypse steckt sowohl die religiöse Konnotation der Offenbarung, als auch die mythische vom Untergang. Deeply researched yet easily understandable, it's must-reading for anyone who wants to understand the financial crises of the past-- and anticipate the catastrophes of the future. In a series of clear and gripping chapters, he shows that in each case the rapid growth of loans produced widespread overcapacity, which Gewinnzahlen Ard Fernsehlotterie led to the spread of bad loans and bank failures.
My only way of understanding this from a theoretical point of view i. The example was given for simplicity. In Part Three we looked at attribution in the early work on this topic by Hegerl et al And instead for this article I decided to focus on what might seem like an obscure point.
Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the average weather, or more rigorously, as the statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of years.
The relevant quantities are most often surface variables such as temperature, precipitation and wind. Classically the period for averaging these variables is 30 years, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization.
Climate in a wider sense also includes not just the mean conditions, but also the associated statistics frequency, magnitude, persistence, trends, etc.
Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified e. In fact, in current weather prediction this time period is about one week.
In current climate science and meteorology the term used is the skill of the forecast. Eventually these two conditions are no more alike than one of the conditions and a time chosen at random from the future.
Climate is the statistics of weather. Weather is unpredictable more than a week ahead. So in the endeavor of climate modeling the best we can hope for is a probabilistic forecast.
In the end, the statistics are knowable in theory , but the actual value on a given day or month or year are not. We have to run lots of simulations over long time periods until the statistics converge on the same result.
In that case we can be confident that, with near perfect models, we have the ability to be confident about the averages, standard deviations, skews, etc of the temperature at various locations on the globe over a 10, year period.
Note 1 : The climate system is obviously imperfectly modeled by GCMs, and this will always be the case. The advantage of a simple model is we can state that the model is a perfect representation of the system — it is just a definition for convenience.
It allows us to evaluate how slight changes in initial conditions or parameters affect our ability to predict the future. The IPCC report also has continual reminders that the model is not reality, for example, chapter 11, p.
For example, do we take the current solar output, current obliquity,precession and eccentricity as fixed? If so, then any statistics will be calculated for a condition that will anyway be changing.
The subject of attribution could be a series by itself but as I started the series Natural Variability and Chaos it makes sense to weave it into that story.
In Part One and Part Two we had a look at chaotic systems and what that might mean for weather and climate. I was planning to develop those ideas a lot more before discussing attribution, but anyway..
AR5, Chapter Attribution is 85 pages on the idea that the changes over the last 50 or years in mean surface temperature — and also some other climate variables — can be attributed primarily to anthropogenic greenhouse gases.
The technical side of the discussion fascinated me, but has a large statistical component. The foundation of a lot of statistics is the idea of independent events.
So, looking ahead, what is the chance of getting 5 two times in a row? However, after you have spun the roulette wheel and got a 5, what is the chance of a second 5?
The past has no impact on the future statistics. Plenty of fodder for pundits though. In short, we note that GCMs are commonly treated as independent from one another, when in fact there are many reasons to believe otherwise.
But GCM independence has not been evaluated by model builders and others in the climate science community. Until now the climate science literature has given only passing attention to this problem, and the field has not developed systematic approaches for assessing model independence.
In my efforts to understand Chapter 10 of AR5 I followed up on a lot of references and ended up winding my way back to Hegerl et al Gabriele Hegerl is one of the lead authors of Chapter 10 of AR5, was one of the two coordinating lead authors of the Attribution chapter of AR4, and one of four lead authors on the relevant chapter of AR3 — and of course has a lot of papers published on this subject.
Fingerprints, by the way, seems like a marketing term. Fingerprints evokes the idea that you can readily demonstrate that John G.
Doe of Smith St, Smithsville was at least present at the crime scene and there is no possibility of confusing his fingerprints with John G. Dode who lives next door even though their mothers could barely tell them apart.
Then based on the fit you can distinguish one from the other. The statistical basis is covered in detail in Hasselmann and more briefly in this paper: Hegerl et al — both papers are linked below in the References.
The greatest uncertainty of our analysis is the estimate of the natural variability noise level.. The shortcomings of the present estimates of natural climate variability cannot be readily overcome.
However, the next generation of models should provide us with better simulations of natural variability. In the future, more observations and paleoclimatic information should yield more insight into natural variability, especially on longer timescales.
This would enhance the credibility of the statistical test. However, it is generally believed that models reproduce the space-time statistics of natural variability on large space and long time scales months to years reasonably realistic.
The verification of variability of CGMCs [coupled GCMs] on decadal to century timescales is relatively short, while paleoclimatic data are sparce and often of limited quality.
We assume that the detection variable is Gaussian with zero mean, that is, that there is no long-term nonstationarity in the natural variability.
This method was pretty much the standard until the post era. In the next article we will look at more recent work in attribution and fingerprints and see whether the field has developed.
And that question is the key. What is the likelihood that climate models accurately represent the long-term statistics of natural variability?
Bindoff, N. What does it mean when climate models agree? Policy There are many classes of systems but in the climate blogosphere world two ideas about climate seem to be repeated the most.
Weather is an initial value problem, whereas climate is a boundary value problem. If the sources and sinks of CO2 were chaotic and could quickly release and sequester large fractions of gas perhaps the climate could be chaotic.
Weather is chaotic, climate is not. Many inhabitants of the climate blogosphere already know the answer to this subject and with much conviction.
So instead, try to explain what evidence is there for your opinion. However, the number of variables involved is only two:.
If we have a double pendulum , one pendulum attached at the bottom of another pendulum, we do get a chaotic system. There are some nice visual simulations around, which St.
Google might help interested readers find. Figure 1 — the blue arrows indicate that the point O is being driven up and down by an external force.
What am I talking about? Common experience teaches us about linearity. If I pick up an apple in the supermarket it weighs about 0.
If I take 10 apples the collection weighs 1. Most of our real world experience follows this linearity and so we expect it. Seems reasonable — double the absolute temperature and get double the radiation..
Surprising, but most actual physics, engineering and chemistry is like this. It gets more confusing when we consider the interaction of other variables.
Once you get above a certain speed most of the resistance comes from the wind so we will focus on that. Typically the wind resistance increases as the square of the speed.
This means you have to put in 8x the effort to get 2x the speed. On Sunday you go for a ride and the wind speed is zero.
Probably should have taken the day off.. No chance of getting to that speed! On Tuesday you go for a ride and the wind speed is the same so you go in the opposite direction and take the train home.
All with the same physics. You get used to the fact that real science — real world relationships — has these kind of factors and you come to expect them.
And you have an equation that makes calculating them easy. And you have computers to do the work. It is also the reason why something like climate feedback is very difficult to measure.
Imagine measuring the change in power required to double speed on the Monday. We will return to this question later. When you start out doing maths, physics, engineering..
These teach you how to use the tools of the trade. You solve equations. You rearrange relationships using equations and mathematical tricks, and these rearranged equations give you insight into how things work.
Linear is special. Damped, in physics terms, just means there is something opposing the movement. We have friction from the air and so over time the pendulum slows down and stops.
And not chaotic. And not interesting. So we need something to keep it moving. The equation that results note 1 has the massive number of three variables — position, speed and now time to keep track of the driving up and down of the pivot point.
Three variables seems to be the minimum to create a chaotic system note 2. This is typical of chaotic systems — certain parameter values or combinations of parameters can move the system between quite different states.
As we increase the timespan of the simulation the statistics of two slightly different initial conditions become more alike. But if we look at the statistics of the results we might find that they are very predictable.
This is typical of many but not all chaotic systems. The orbits of the planets in the solar system are chaotic.
In fact, even 3-body systems moving under gravitational attraction have chaotic behavior. So how did we land a man on the moon?
This raises the interesting questions of timescales and amount of variation. Therefore, in principle, the Solar system can be chaotic, but not necessarily this implies events such as collisions or escaping planets..
Such variations are not large enough to provoke catastrophic events before extremely large time. Just to round out the picture a little, even if a system is not chaotic and is deterministic we might lack sufficient knowledge to be able to make useful predictions.
If you take a look at figure 3 in Ensemble Forecasting you can see that with some uncertainty of the initial velocity and a key parameter the resulting velocity of an extremely simple system has quite a large uncertainty associated with it.
This case is quantitively different of course. By obtaining more accurate values of the starting conditions and the key parameters we can reduce our uncertainty.
Many chaotic systems have deterministic statistics. Other chaotic systems can be intransitive. That is, for a very slight change in initial conditions we can have a different set of long term statistics.
Lorenz gives a good example. Lorenz introduces the concept of almost intransitive systems. Note 2 — This is true for continuous systems.
Discrete systems can be chaotic with less parameters. Climate sensitivity is all about trying to discover whether the climate system has positive or negative feedback.
A hotter planet should radiate more. Suppose the flux increased by 0. That is, the planet heated up but there was no increase in energy radiated to space.
In this case it would indicate negative feedback within the climate system. Before anyone thinks about drawing any conclusions from this data about Doom WADs and editing in general, I should point out that:.
Having said all that, I consider the results interesting, in particluar the comparison of Doom editors and tools further down.
The year in which the WADs were written. The heavy bias towards '98 reflects the year when I was most active at reviewing, and the year in which most Boom WADs were made.
The statistics driver would have to set up its own timer to periodically check the buffer for new information.
This system is only possible because of DOS's lack of memory protection: this kind of sharing of memory is not so easily possible in modern operating systems.
This wiki. This wiki All wikis. About Blog Blog Tags. Buchanan So! Hi everybody! I am working over the next several days to update the website, youtube videos, and generally make things easier to find.
Many years ago, a friend bought the statstools. I transferred the site to my services, and it has given me trouble ever since.
Check out the new website!